Rossputin.com Rational Thinking About Our World

[Update: It is not for children or the squeamish, but a video of Saddam's execution can be found here:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7532034279766935521]

This morning (Iraq time) Saddam Hussein was executed for crimes against humanity. While I'm glad he's gone, I can't help but feeling as if the event is an anti-climax.

I do not expect it to be the harbinger either of noticeable positive change nor important renewed violence in Iraq.

As I write this (Friday night), I am hearing one of Saddam's lawyers complain that the trial was orchestrated by the US, that it was unjust, and that Hussein was not guilty in the case for which he was convicted. The lawyer asked rhetorically whether President Bush is happy now. However, such subtleties are probably wasted on the Iraqi population at large. Shi'ites will be celebrating. Sunnis will generally be slightly unhappy, despite knowing that Saddam was a monster. But they hate each other enough already that a little extra fodder will be irrelevant.

There is one main thing that has to happen in Iraq for it to get on the right track: The death, or at least substantial weakening, of Muqtada al Sadr. His militias are responsible for much of the mayhem in Baghdad, and they must be dealt with as quickly as possible. The only reason it has not been done already is that Prime Minister al-Maliki is dependent on Sadr for much of his political support. Given that relationship, the declining tolerance for Sadr, and the Hadley memorandum some weeks ago expressing concerns about al-Maliki, I would not be surprised to see a new Prime Minister before the middle of 2007 unless Sadr somehow becomes dead before then.