Rossputin.com Rational Thinking About Our World

The center-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy and the socialist Segolene Royal were the two leading vote-getters in this weekend's French election, with about 31% and 26% of the vote respectively.

The upstart centrist Francois Bayrou got a rather strong 18% of the vote and the far-right ultra-nationalist (effectively a nazi) Jean-Marie Le Pen got only (and I use that word with slight sarcasm) 11% of the vote, far less than his prior showing and less than exit polls had predicted.

Turnout in the election was estimated at an astounding 84%, the highest in 50 years according to MarketWatch.

Given that Sarkozy and Royal combined to get only 57% of the vote, it is far from assured that Sarkozy's 5-point lead will hold up in the final voting on May 6th. However, my guess is that he will win by somewhat more than that margin.

I do not believe that supporters of the centrist Bayrou will break socialist in the final vote, which is exactly what Royal needs to happen to have a chance. Given that Sarkozy has been much tougher in his anti-immigrant rhetoric (really more of an anti-crime focus) I think it is exceptionally unlikely that Le Pen voters will vote for Royal. It's more a question of whether they'll just stay home or come out for Sarkozy.

While I love France, its people, its food and wine, its history, and even its pride, their government is consistently among the worst (or at least the most annoying) in the developed world. France constantly suffers under the weight of a massively unionized economy, with too much of what should be the private sector owned by the government. Their idiotic 35 hour work week and other worker "protections" ensure unemployment rates that would demolish any chance for a President to get re-elected in the USA. France used to be the big power in Europe but now realizes that it has been overtaken by Germany, which used to play along to France's tune but is now calling the tunes itself. Furthermore, France suffers from a demographic nightmare: A massive influx of Muslim immigrants (around 10% of France is now Muslim), a low rate of reproduction among native French, and a brain drain of people who would love to be entrepreneurial but are not willing to take the risk and effort simply to have a socialist government confiscate the rewards of success.

Even the "conservative" governments in France have done nothing of significance to fight the socialism which is like a wet blanket over their whole economy. The question is whether enough French people realize that Segolene Royal's policy prescriptions are intended to make government even bigger and more expensive.

I hope they are that smart. Sarkozy will certainly be no solid ally of the USA, but he'd be better than any other candidate. He'll also be a much better friend to Israel, I would expect, as he has some Jewish ancestry. But most importantly, he's probably the best choice for the French and certainly far better than the only other possible winner.

If I could vote in France, I'd vote Sarkozy.

My guess on the final outcome: Sarkozy 53.5%, Royal 46.5%, showing that a big percentage of France is still clueless as to the destructive nature of socialism.