Rossputin.com Rational Thinking About Our World

Following Tuesday's announcement by NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg that he had renounced his membership in the Republican Party and registered as unaffiliated, all the talk was about whether it meant Bloomberg was thinking of running for President and which candidate that might hurt most.

Even Bloomberg's direct statements that he is not a candidate are only leading to more speculation that he is, such as in this article from the Guardian (UK).

As for me, I believe Bloomberg that he will not be a candidate in 2008, though I could imagine him considering a run in 2012.

That said, Bloomberg is a very smart guy and probably realizes that Ross Perot did not get one electoral vote after spending $65 million fifteen years ago, although he did get close to 20% of the popular vote. Also, as weird as Ross Perot seemed, there was something interesting and compelling about him, especially at that time in our electoral history, and I do not see how Bloomberg can get anything like that level of grass roots support.

Furthermore, Bloomberg has been a Democrat his whole life until running for mayor of New York City in 2001. Does he think he could get the Democratic nomination? Maybe. Does he think he could get the Republican nomination? Almost certainly not. So, he is likely relegated to running as an independent if he runs, and certainly so for 2008.

While Bloomberg has more money than all the other candidates for President combined, he did not get that rich by being silly or wasteful. Therefore, I believe him that at least for the rest of his remaining two and a half years as mayor of New York, he will not be a candidate for President.