2010 General Election prediction game

UPDATE: The election prediction contest is now closed.  Here are the average guesses, with the full chart below:

 

Average Guess -1.89 3.46 1.36 8.47 66.43 8.76

Tancredo Buck Frazier Gardner GOP House GOP Senate

(We had 37 entries...I wish more people had jumped in since over 1200 people looked at this note.)

----------------------------

There are so many interesting races to think about in this election season, but for our 2010 election prediction contest, I'll limit it to a few questions.  As with the primary election contest, we'll add up each person's (absolute value) error in % points for each race, and the one with the lowest total error wins.

Whoever gets closest will get bragging rights, a copy of Bastiat's "The Law", and my buying his or her first beer when next we meet.

For example, if you say Candidate A by 5 and Candidate B by 2 and Candidate C by 1, and the results are Candidate A by 2.5, Candidate B's opponent by 2, and Candidate C by 2, then the errors are 2.5, 4, and 1 for a total of 7.5.

For Colorado races: Given the extreme likelihood that a recount, if one happens, will result in Democrat cheating and not give the actual true vote count, in any race where there is a recount, this bet will be settled based on the FIRST full vote count, not the final (almost certainly manipulated) count.

For Senate and House seats: Since it's based on who ends up in the seat, these races will be settled after any recounts.

The races we'll "bet" on are:

Colorado Governor (Margin of victory or loss for Tancredo vs Hickenlooper)
Colorado US Senate (Margin of victory or loss for Buck vs Bennet)
Colorado 7th CD (Ryan Frazier v Ed Perlmutter)
Colorado 4th CD (Cory Gardner v Betsy Markey)
Total number of seats picked up by GOP in the House, with error divided by two (so this question doesn't dominate all the others)
Total number of seats picked up by GOP in the Senate

--------------

I'll go first; my (slightly modified on Monday) guesses as to the winner and the margin of victory:

Hickenlooper by 1.15% (I'm sad to make this guess, and I hope I'm wrong...)
Buck by 4.35%
Frazier by 3%
Gardner by 8.95%
69 seats in the House (come on, someone has to take 69!)
9 seats in the Senate

FYI: Senate flips from D to R which I project: AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, NV, PA, WA, WI.  Not highly confident in WA.  WV also possible.  CA a long shot at this point but stranger things have happened. It should also be noted that it's not impossible for the Democrat to win in Alaska, though it's not highly likely.

I'm sorta more interested in the CA governor's race than their Senate race.  If CA elects Jerry Brown again, they deserve everything that will happen to them.

----------

Please send me your guesses by e-mail or comment (on any of the various pages on which you see this note) and I'll regularly update this page with a chart of the current guesses.  If you don't want your first name and last initial used to identify you, please let me know.

Guesses may be changed until I go to sleep on Monday. People whose guesses were changed will be noted by a * in the chart.

------------------

Players and guesses, plus average, so far:

 

Average Guess -1.88 3.46 1.36 8.47 66.43 8.76
Players Tancredo Buck Frazier Gardner GOP House GOP Senate
Ross K -1.15 4.35 3 9 69 9
Eric W -6 4 0.25 10 65 9
Airbus -5 -3 2 10 98 8
Julie M 0.75 3.1 2.75 7.25 62 10
Kevan M -4 3 2 8 63 9
Chris R -6.5 2 -1.5 9.75 60 8
Greg S 0.5 2.5 4 9 62 9
Joe H -3 6 3 6 71 10
JD 0.5 4.2 4 9.5 68 8
AB -3 4 3 16 72 9
Glenn F 0.5 2 3.5 7 61 10
COLawMan 1.75 6.8 -2.4 8.9 58 9
Dave L 1.5 5 4 14 74 11
Rip 1.2 5.8 1.5 8 68 10
C-Rod -3.5 4 -2 4.5 61 8
Bruce T -5.1 8.3 7.8 9.2 88 10
Yokel -2 1.25 1.75 7 73 8
Brian W -1 2 1 9 62 9
Jeremy I -1.9 4.1 1.5 8.2 79 9
Tim D 1 2.75 2 7 67 8
Dave W -4.5 0.3 1.1 4.7 52 7
Rich S -6 5.5 1 8 80 9
Elliot F -2.5 1.5 0.1 7.5 55 8
Segosouth 1.57 4.2 2.35 6.4 67 10
MF -4 2 -2 7 60 9
Ben R -2.3 3.8 4.2 8.5 60 8
KLMP 0.75 7.75 1.25 8.5 68 9
Jake -2.8 0.08 -1.8 9 58 7
Charles 0.5 4.5 2.5 8.5 70 6
TJB 0.25 3 0.3 9 64 8
Keith D -4 1.5 1 7 55 7
Aaron B -3 0.5 -4 7.5 59 9
Ben D -2 4 0.5 10 65 9
Brian O -8 2 -5 7 56 11
DCR -2.1 4.8 1.6 6.6 61 9
Greg B 1 6.5 1 11 77 8
Rusty S 2 4 5 10 70 9
  • joe harrington
    Comment from: joe harrington
    10/29/10 @ 03:58:01 pm

    Hickenlooper by 6% Buck by 4% Frazier by 3% Gardner by 7% 60 seats in the House 9 seats in the Senate

  • gstaff
    Comment from: gstaff
    10/29/10 @ 07:02:31 pm

    Tancredo by 0.5% Buck by 2.5% Frazier by 4% Gardner by 9% 62 seats in house 9 senate seats

  • gstaff
    Comment from: gstaff
    10/29/10 @ 07:03:23 pm

    PS: Give the beer to Rusty.

  • kevan mcnaught
    Comment from: kevan mcnaught
    10/29/10 @ 08:20:34 pm

    Hickenlooper by 7 Buck by 4 Frazier by 2 Gardner by 8 63 seats in the House 9 seats in the Senate

  • kevan mcnaught
    Comment from: kevan mcnaught
    10/29/10 @ 08:35:39 pm

    This is Julie McNaught (under Kevan's log in), because it wouldn't let me do my own.... Tancredo by 0.75 Buck by 3.10 Frazier by 2.75 Gardner by 7.25 62 seats in House 10 seats in Senate

  • airbus
    Comment from: airbus
    10/29/10 @ 10:09:54 pm

    Hick by 5 (if he has a good illegal alien turnout) I predict Maes will release his voters to Hick The fiscal conservative Bennet by 3 (Washington County will carry him) Frazier will take it 98 House Seats 8 Senate

  • airbus
    Comment from: airbus
    10/30/10 @ 09:14:23 am

    Clarity on picks: Frazier by 2% Gardner by 10% Huksers 10 and 2 on the season

  • colawman
    Comment from: colawman
    10/31/10 @ 09:21:03 am

    Tancredo by 1.75 Buck by 6.8 Frazier loses by 2.4 Gardner by 8.9 GOP House 58 GOP Senate 9

  • Rip57
    Comment from: Rip57
    10/31/10 @ 10:59:50 am

    Going wave here. Wishful thinking? Perhaps, but my experience with polls, even RCP average (because it is an average) is that they understate gains in wave elections. I'm all in. Tancredo by 1.2 Buck by 5.8 Frazier by 1.5 Gardner by 8 GOP House 68 GOP Senate 10

  • LightningRodBlog
    Comment from: LightningRodBlog
    10/31/10 @ 11:36:19 am

    Hickenlooper by 3.5 Buck by 4 Perlmutter by 2 Gardner by 4.5 GOP House 61 GOP Senate 8 I'm also a Chris R, but not the one who's already predicted. Call me C-Rod.

  • LightningRodBlog
    Comment from: LightningRodBlog
    10/31/10 @ 12:07:17 pm

    It would be cool if you could do an average at the bottom of the prediction table.

  • Comment from: Rossputin
    10/31/10 @ 01:32:07 pm

    done!

  • yokel
    Comment from: yokel
    10/31/10 @ 01:47:40 pm

    Hick by 2 Buck by 1.25 Frazier by 1.75 Gardner by 7 73 Seats for the GOP in the House 8 Seats for the GOP in the Senate

  • Rip57
    Comment from: Rip57
    10/31/10 @ 03:26:23 pm

    So far I'm hoping Dave L (All Colorado GOP/Tanc, 74 House, 11 Senate) wins this contest. If he does, I'll buy you all a beer. Rip

  • Jeremy Isaac
    Comment from: Jeremy Isaac
    10/31/10 @ 08:24:28 pm

    Hickenlooper by 1.9 Buck by 4.1 Frazier by 1.5 Gardner by 8.2 House +79 Senate +9 And for good measure, Tipton by 4.5 and +9 governorships nationally (for 33/16/1 split)

  • tldavis
    Comment from: tldavis
    10/31/10 @ 08:39:35 pm

    Tancredo by 1.0 Buck by 2.75 Frazier by 2 Gardner by 7 House + 67 Senate + 8

  • BlueCarp
    Comment from: BlueCarp
    10/31/10 @ 10:30:57 pm

    Colorado Governor Hickenlooper by 4.5% Colorado US Senate - Buck by 0.3% Colorado 7th CD - Frazier by 1.1% Colorado 4th CD - Gardner by 4.7% Total number of seats picked up by GOP : 52 Total number of seats picked up by GOP in the Senate: 7

  • Rich S
    Comment from: Rich S
    10/31/10 @ 10:33:27 pm

    Hickenlooper by 6 Buck by 5.5 Frazier by 1 Gardner by 8 House +80 Senate +9

  • Elliot Fladen
    Comment from: Elliot Fladen
    11/01/10 @ 06:37:39 am

    Buck by 1.5% Hickenlooper by 2.5% Frazier by .1% Gardner by 7.5% House +55 Senate +8

  • M Finch
    Comment from: M Finch
    11/01/10 @ 10:08:33 am

    Hickenlooper by 4 Buck by 2 Perlmutter by 2 Gardner by 7 60 seats in House 9 seats in Senate Thanks Ross! .

  • KLMP
    Comment from: KLMP
    11/01/10 @ 01:11:59 pm

    Tancredo by .75 Buck by 7.75 Frazier by 1.25 Gardner by 8.5 House GOP Gains 68 Senate GOP Gains 9

  • political jake
    Comment from: political jake
    11/01/10 @ 01:30:24 pm

    Hickenlooper by 2.8% Buck by 0.08% Perlmutter by 1.8% Gardner by 9% 58 seats in the House 7 seats in the Senate

  • Charles
    Comment from: Charles
    11/01/10 @ 01:47:51 pm

    Tancredo by .5% Buck by 4.5 Frazier by 2.5 Gardner by 8.5 +70 House seats +6 Senate seats

  • airbus
    Comment from: airbus
    11/01/10 @ 02:22:53 pm

    Actually, I would hope that Brown wins in California. I would like to see it then, during the bankruptcy, the union pensions get whacked and the illegal alien bennies turn up with an empty pocket. Only then, maybe, the lesson of the libs out there will finally be learned. Same for Cuomo winning in New York.

  • Comment from: Rossputin
    11/01/10 @ 02:40:22 pm

    Airbus, I can't disagree with your logic since that's basically what I said about Obama winning. That said, I would have hoped that we'd have learned the lesson already and not need to repeat it on a state-by-state level, such as with Jerry Brown or Hickenlooper.

  • TJB
    Comment from: TJB
    11/01/10 @ 03:34:58 pm

    Buck by 3% Tank by .25% Frazier by .3% Gardner by 9 % House +64 Senate +8 .

  • kjdiamond
    Comment from: kjdiamond
    11/01/10 @ 04:12:00 pm

    The Hick by 4% Buck by 1.5% Frazier by 1% Gardner by 7% House 55 Seats Senate 7 Seats I will know if there is a God in heaven if I wake-up on Wednesday morning and I hear that Barney is gone. That would make me feel better than seeing Angle win.

  • Ben DeGrow
    Comment from: Ben DeGrow
    11/01/10 @ 05:15:18 pm

    My official picks: GOV: John Hickenlooper wins (+2) SEN: Ken Buck wins (+4) CD-4: Cory Gardner wins (+10) CD-7: Ryan Frazier wins (+0.5) GOP HOUSE: +65 GOP SENATE: +9

  • dcrandall
    Comment from: dcrandall
    11/01/10 @ 07:00:06 pm

    Hickenlooper by 2.1 Buck by 4.8 Frazier by 1.6 Gardner by 6.6 61 seats in House 9 seats in Senate Also, Tipton by 0.5

  • Dave L
    Comment from: Dave L
    11/01/10 @ 07:25:22 pm

    Dick Morris on Hannity Monday night predicting Republican gains in U.S. House elections..."The historical record is 74 seats set in 1922. I'm confident we'll surpass that." On Senate, Morris calling for nine seat gains, plus two maybes (CA, WA).

  • Comment from: Rossputin
    11/01/10 @ 07:28:50 pm

    If he says 9 with those two maybes that means he's counting WV as a GOP win. Could be that way. Indeed, WV is basically a must-win to take back the majority.

  • Dave L
    Comment from: Dave L
    11/01/10 @ 07:53:11 pm

    Correction, checked back on DVR, Morris's two maybes are WV and CA. The nine Senate gains he's confident on are ND, AR, IN, PA, CO, WI, NV, IL, WA. He also "doesn't count out" McMahon (CT) and O'Donnell (DE).

  • Comment from: Rossputin
    11/01/10 @ 08:13:58 pm

    OK, then Morris is saying the same thing I am, though I'm not highly confident about WA.

  • joe harrington
    Comment from: joe harrington
    11/01/10 @ 10:27:09 pm

    Redo... Since I was 2nd and I have had time to reflect... Hickenlooper by 3% Buck by 6% Frazier by 3% Gardner by 6% 71 seats in the House 10 seats in the Senate

Leave a comment

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Log in now!