UPDATE: The election prediction contest is now closed. Here are the average guesses, with the full chart below:
|Tancredo||Buck||Frazier||Gardner||GOP House||GOP Senate|
(We had 37 entries...I wish more people had jumped in since over 1200 people looked at this note.)
There are so many interesting races to think about in this election season, but for our 2010 election prediction contest, I'll limit it to a few questions. As with the primary election contest, we'll add up each person's (absolute value) error in % points for each race, and the one with the lowest total error wins.
Whoever gets closest will get bragging rights, a copy of Bastiat's "The Law", and my buying his or her first beer when next we meet.
For example, if you say Candidate A by 5 and Candidate B by 2 and Candidate C by 1, and the results are Candidate A by 2.5, Candidate B's opponent by 2, and Candidate C by 2, then the errors are 2.5, 4, and 1 for a total of 7.5.
For Colorado races: Given the extreme likelihood that a recount, if one happens, will result in Democrat cheating and not give the actual true vote count, in any race where there is a recount, this bet will be settled based on the FIRST full vote count, not the final (almost certainly manipulated) count.
For Senate and House seats: Since it's based on who ends up in the seat, these races will be settled after any recounts.
The races we'll "bet" on are:
Colorado Governor (Margin of victory or loss for Tancredo vs Hickenlooper)
Colorado US Senate (Margin of victory or loss for Buck vs Bennet)
Colorado 7th CD (Ryan Frazier v Ed Perlmutter)
Colorado 4th CD (Cory Gardner v Betsy Markey)
Total number of seats picked up by GOP in the House, with error divided by two (so this question doesn't dominate all the others)
Total number of seats picked up by GOP in the Senate
I'll go first; my (slightly modified on Monday) guesses as to the winner and the margin of victory:
Hickenlooper by 1.15% (I'm sad to make this guess, and I hope I'm wrong...)
Buck by 4.35%
Frazier by 3%
Gardner by 8.95%
69 seats in the House (come on, someone has to take 69!)
9 seats in the Senate
FYI: Senate flips from D to R which I project: AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, NV, PA, WA, WI. Not highly confident in WA. WV also possible. CA a long shot at this point but stranger things have happened. It should also be noted that it's not impossible for the Democrat to win in Alaska, though it's not highly likely.
I'm sorta more interested in the CA governor's race than their Senate race. If CA elects Jerry Brown again, they deserve everything that will happen to them.
Please send me your guesses by e-mail or comment (on any of the various pages on which you see this note) and I'll regularly update this page with a chart of the current guesses. If you don't want your first name and last initial used to identify you, please let me know.
Guesses may be changed until I go to sleep on Monday. People whose guesses were changed will be noted by a * in the chart.
Players and guesses, plus average, so far:
|Players||Tancredo||Buck||Frazier||Gardner||GOP House||GOP Senate|
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