06/29/07
Why Giuliani is still the frontrunner
As my regular readers know, I am enthusiastic about both Fred Thompson and Rudy Guiliani. I believe one of them will be the nominee.
There is a lot of excitement about Thompson and he is polling exceptionally well for someone who hasn't spent a dime on advertising or even officially entered the race.
I am a big fan of Thompson's recent writing (at TownHall.com) and speeches in which he emphasizes first principles such as federalism and limited government.
Thompson and Giuliani are likely to have fairly similar positions on economic and foreign policy issues. At this point, leaving aside the down-and-dirty political mudslinging we'll likely see, the real differences between the two are, from a true policy standpoint, social issues (particularly abortion), and, from a political perception standpoint, the question of "who is the real conservative?".
I believe this question is a double-edged sword for conservatives (and for the record, I don't actually consider myself a conservative; I'm far more libertarian.)
The conservative base of the GOP will be very tempted by Fred Thompson, as they should be. He is smart, charismatic (enough to be on TV and in movies at least), folksy, and his career as an actor will lead many to obvious comparisons with Ronald Reagan. And based on the little I know right now about Thompson, it is easy to conceive of him as a very good and effective President were he to win the election.
But that last qualifier is a very big deal.
Although Rudy's lead over Republican opposition for the nomination has been slipping, primary because of Thompson's entry into the race, conservatives and libertarians alike must keep in mind that the brass ring is the election, not the nomination.
And while it is still VERY early in this process, internals of a recent Quinnipiac University poll show why I believe Rudy is still somewhat more likely to get the nomination than Fred: He is more likely to be able to win the general election.
For example, look at this recent Quinnipiac Poll:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1079
It shows Giuliani tied with or leading Hillary Clinton in three critical swing states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. The analysis in the link above focuses on Giuliani's lead shrinking from prior polls, but that is not the key. The key is that Giuliani far outperforms the other Republican frontrunners.
Take particular note of Ohio. For a Democrat to win, (s)he needs to win every state that Al Gore won, plus Ohio. In this recent poll, and I re-emphasize that it is very early in the race, McCain and Thompson both trail Clinton and Obama. (Frighteningly for America, but not too surprising for a state with voters with the poor judgment to elect George Voinovich, Al Gore polls as beating all three Republicans in this survey.)
Pennsylvania is also critical: It is a very big state which went to Kerry over Bush by 144,000 votes (a 2% difference, so a 1% swing would change the outcome). The Quinnipiac poll shows Giuliani tied with Clinton and beating both Gore and Obama, whereas all three Democrats win head-to-head polls versus both Thompson and McCain.
Even if a Republican doesn't win Pennsylvania, it is critical that the race there be made competitive and that Democrats are forced to spend resources there and in other "blue states" which had a reasonable chance of voting for a Republican whom they find compelling.
As unlikely as it is that a Republican could win New York, Rudy's nomination would cause Democrats to have to spend a massive amount of time and money there, lessening their ability to focus on Ohio, Florida, or on states which were "red states" but by a small margin.
The other important internal in this poll, which you can see by comparing questions 3 and 9 in the poll detail, is that Giuliani does much better among women than the other Republican candidates.
The "gender gap" is a serious problem for Republicans, and Rudy is, in my view, the most likely candidate to fill in the gap a bit. Although Fred Thompson still has plenty of time to market himself to American men and women alike, his very nature as a 6'6" attorney with a gravelly voice is likely to remain much more appealing to male voters than to female.
Additionally, and more importantly, Giuliani owns the issue of security and fighting terrorism. The other Republicans do their best with it, and they're almost all much better than any Democrat, but safety and security is what Rudy is now famous for, and those issues have far more traction with women than things like federalism, low taxes, and the other important issues that Thompson has so far emphasized.
While I would be (based on what I know today) equally pleased to see Rudy Guiliani or Fred Thompson as our next President, us who care about the future of our nation must keep our eye on the prize, namely winning the general election. At the end of the day, my primary vote will go to whichever of these two candidates I believe has the best chance of winning the prize. The risk to our country of another Clinton presidency is far too high to vote for a candidate who might be philosophically slightly more pure but less likely to win.
Trackback address for this post
Trackback URL (right click and copy shortcut/link location)
4 comments
on 06/29/07 at 05:49
Thompson has not yet entered the race, and that also has to effect the polls.
The key question is whether Rudy can win the South. No Republican will be elected without carrying the South. It is that simple. The odds are that Rudy just won't play well enough below the Mason-Dixon line to pull out enough electoral votes to win.
His support of Bush's policies in the Mideast, particularly the Iraq war, won't play well outside the South - and they will hurt him some there. There is no reason to believe that the electorate will view those policies any differently than they did in 2006. In a general election, his support of those policies will be an even bigger liability.
Thompson's views on Iraq aren't as well known or as closely identified with Bush's policies as Rudy's.
Current polls aside, Thompson - provided no skeleton's jump out of the closet once he announces - will be the only electable Republican candidate.
First, let me re-emphasize that I am not cheering for Rudy to beat Thompson. I am cheering for either of them to beat the other guys, especially McCain. I like both Rudy and Thompson and, based on what I know now, would be happy to see either one.
The flip side to your argument about the South, which I agree with by the way, is that the candidate must hold Ohio and the less-red-every-year Colorado, among others. That could be harder for Thompson than for Giuliani.
Also, as I said in my original note, I think Rudy makes the Dems have to worry about PA and maybe even NY a little bit in a way that I think Thompson doesn't.
No matter what, it will be an interesting time ahead of us!
on 07/03/07 at 12:39
The south is actually irrelevant due to the fact that most likely it will go red regardless. Rudy, who can appeal to some blue states, and by default taking the red south would be an Electoral College dream. When push comes to shove, however, the hard core republicans vote in primaries and they will never accept someone with the social policies of Rudy. A Very conservative Presidential nominee along with a northern, more socially liberal VP such as Rudy would achieve a high electability chance in a general election.
Which leads to the third reason why the head to head polls aren’t at all accurate, they don’t take in to consideration the second party on the ticket that can sway the small percentage of voters such as your 1% swing example in Pennsylvania. A Vice President on a Fred Thompson ticket that can sway 73 thousand votes in Pennsylvania would put the election back up in the air.
To the other poster, on the contrary, it's getting way too late for Fred. He either jumps in in the next couple weeks or he's toast. People are solidifying behind Rudy.
Libertarians for Giuliani at www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
Comment feed for this postLeave a comment
