Rossputin.com: Rational Thinking About Our World

As I mentioned in a posting about a week ago, I believed there was substantial political risk to Pakistan's President Musharraf, and thus to US interests in Pakistan, if he stormed the Red Mosque to kill the fanatics holed up in there...though they surely needed killing.

The mosque was stormed and a leader of the fanatics killed, following which, according to this report from BBC News, pro-Taliban islamofascists in the area of northwestern Pakistan which borders Afghanistan have terminated their cease-fire with the government and have killed over 60 people and wounded many more.

Quoting from the BBC article: "The government has sent thousands of new troops to the north-west fearing there could be a new "holy war" in revenge" (for the storming of the mosque in Islamabad.)

While the Red Mosque events were coming to a close, Stratfor made an interesting argument that Musharraf's actions have put al Qaede leadership, presumed to be hiding out in Pakistan, in a very difficult spot because Musharraf is now likely forced to take a more aggressive position against all terrorists or likely terrorists in his country simply in order to protect his own power.

Although these battles are in some of the world's most remote places, they are not remote from the long-term interests of the US or the West. They are the front lines of the real war on terror, which is the war on radical, violent, murderous Islamists.

The region is dominated by tribal warlords with no loyalty to anyone but their own tribe, and who have some affection for the Taliban and al Qaeda. To the extent that they do not support our enemies, they also generally do not oppose them. They make the region a petri dish, so that a small deposit of virulent islamists rapidly grows into a serious infestation which could turn into an even bigger contagion into the surrounding region.

As just one example of what countries which catch this disease turn into, I refer you to this other BBC story, "Iran to intensify dress crackdown":

Iran will intensify a crackdown on women flouting Islamic dress laws, a senior policeman has told local media.

Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan said from 23 July twice as many police will tackle "immoral behaviour".

Hundreds of women have already been arrested and some beaten by police since the drive began in April, human rights groups say.

And that's the least of the harmful we can expect from Islamic regimes like Iran and the former Taliban. At worst, we can expect that people who truly believe we are "The Great Satan" will continue to be willing to die in order to hurt or kill us.

What makes the situation in Pakistan particularly frightening is the combination of a weak President and a country that already has nuclear weapons. If Pakistan's government were to fall, the risk to the world could suddenly be greater than that from Iran, at least for the short term, and the US could be thrust into an exceptionally difficult situation.

For the world's sake, we must hope that Musharraf can handle the problem, but I am not highly optimistic.