Rossputin.com: Rational Thinking About Our World

[Note: A shorter version of this article was published on RealClearPolitics.com:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/08/rudy_meets_expectations.html]

I had the opportunity to attend a meet-and-greet fundraising event with Rudy Giuliani last week. I went into it with high expectations and was not disappointed: the Mayor was intelligent, funny, very much on top of the issues, and very engaged and engaging with the room.

Let me be clear: I was at this event as a supporter and a past and future contributor, and not as “press”. The campaign did not ask me to write about the event, and I’m not at all certain they want me to…but as Rudy would be the first to agree, it’s a free country (though getting less free every year).

Giuliani took a few minutes giving prepared remarks to the crowd of about 40 people, but quickly moved to taking questions, a notable demonstration of self-confidence in his mastery of the issues, his ability to think on his feet and to communicate ideas and ideals.

As seems to be the norm with Mayor Giuliani, the time was split about 50/50 between talking about terrorism/national security versus domestic policy issues, most of which focused on health care.

The mayor repeatedly came back to his theme that we must be “on offense” against Islamic terrorism. I agree with Rudy that most of the Democratic seekers of the presidency are far too passive in their approach to the obvious critical threat of our generation. Even more than that, however, I was gratified to see a politician not shy away from naming the true source of the problem by using the word “Islamic”. People who do not realize what the issue really is will never be capable of addressing it.

Giuliani spoke of the decimation of the military and intelligence budgets during the Clinton years. He mentioned that he could see how it might have been possible for Bill Clinton to underestimate the threat at the time, but did not forgive him for it, noting the various attacks by Islamic radicals on the World Trade Center (1993), the US Embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Nairobi, Kenya (1998), and the USS Cole (2000), all of which happened during Clinton’s time in office.

Despite the grave nature of our national security issues, the audience seemed at least as interested in talking about health care as about terrorism. Every question asked, and every answer given by Giuliani, revolved around a substantial fear that the Democrats want nothing short of socialized medicine and that if they get their way, the quality of medical care in America will drop dramatically as the cost to society increases massively. Giuliani made the important and correct rhetorical point that there is an obvious attraction to the idea of “universal coverage”, but that it needs to be explained to voters that this must and does mean government control of your health care decisions. He also pointed out that most of the people the Democrats’ plans would add coverage for are not America’s poor, who already are eligible for Medicaid. Instead they are people who either choose not to buy coverage or can not afford to buy coverage because the current insurance system is structured in a way that forces prices up and the tax code is structured in a way which destroys individuals’ incentive and ability to get coverage if they want it. Giuliani is correctly on board with President Bush’s proposal to modify the tax code as a first step away from forcing health insurance coverage to go through employers and to begin returning to a system of personal responsibility. The last thing we should be doing is leaving a dysfunctional system and simply forcing taxpayers to spend more money reinforcing that system.

On the issues of health care and other domestic policy issues which were discussed, Giuliani repeatedly returned to fundamental underlying principles of liberty but without an obvious dogmatic focus on the conceptual. Instead, it was clear that he truly believes the best outcomes derive from freely-made decisions of free people in the free market.

Giuliani spent a short time answering a question about the environment. He got applause for noting that it’s irresponsible of liberals to pound the table about reducing greenhouse gases but then refuse to discuss nuclear energy. The mayor gave what I thought was the only wrong answer of the event when he said that he supports increased use of ethanol, and as I was leaving I mentioned to him that he should reconsider that position as “ethanol is not as good an idea as you think.” I was very pleased overall with Giuliani’s clear understanding and direct statement that a lot of current global warming hysteria is coming not from true environmentalists but from anti-development ideologues and anti-capitalists. This is a point which would not be lost on the American people but which I have not heard from any other candidate for president.

I have noted previously that I believe Giuliani would still be the front-runner for the GOP nomination even if Fred Thompson (finally) decides to enter the race officially. A large part of the reason is women voters. It is blindingly obvious to me that Giuliani has the best prospects among suburban women, soccer moms, and single women because of his focus on security and his ability to couch deep political principle in language that relates well to just getting things done in every day life. Although it’s a sample size of one event, seeing Rudy in the room of supporters of which half were women confirmed my opinion. The women were at least as interactive with him and as engaged by his answers as the men. The women were nodding their heads in agreement, and asking follow-up questions (especially on health care) at least as much as the men. Rudy simply does not come across as the sort of power-seeking white-collar male as the other candidates do, regardless of the likelihood that he may be just that.

Fred Thompson is probably as solid on political theory as Giuliani, but when looking at the battles for toss-up states like Ohio, Giuliani has a much better chance than Thompson because he can substantially narrow the “gender gap”, whereas I do not believe Thompson can. People have made the argument to me that Rudy will have some trouble in the South and West (because he’s Italian Catholic and has supported gun control), and if Rudy believes there is any truth to that, maybe he should try to get Fred Thompson to sign on as his vice-presidential running mate, getting a pro-gun southerner on the ticket. But at the end of the day, Rudy as the presidential candidate can make the Democrats have to spend time and money trying to defend Pennsylvania where Thompson will not. Rudy can probably take Ohio, whereas Thompson will have a harder time. Will voters in Alabama really vote for Hillary because they’re not sure how to spell “Giuliani”? I don’t think so. The positives for Rudy in the North are bigger than his negatives in the South and West.

Another reason Rudy should be relatively popular among women is that he can truly run on a record of achievement. As a member of the male part of the species, I’m well aware that I can be swayed by a fine speech, by an elegant display of understanding principles of federalism, by quoting James Madison. Women are more practical than that. They think “sure, those principles are nice, but can you really get anything done?” Rudy has gotten a lot done. He tamed an ungovernable city, lowering crime while lowering taxes and reforming welfare. For voters in general, but especially for women, this will go a long way.

In total, Rudy spent about half an hour with the assembled supporters. He gave the room a good dose of policy, principle, and humor, and came across as a guy who genuinely believes he can do the best job in our nation’s most important job.

He demonstrated magnanimity and equanimity as well. When asked what he would say to people who would vote for Hillary just because she’s a woman, he gave a great answer: “That’s a silly reason to vote for someone, just as it would be silly for someone to vote for me because I’m a man or to vote for Obama because he’s African-American. Likewise people shouldn’t vote against Obama for that reason or against Romney because he’s Mormon. I mean, really, aren’t we past that kind of thing? Americans should vote for the person they think will be the best President. And as for people voting for Hillary because she’s a woman, I think it will even out. Plenty of people will vote for her for the wrong reasons and plenty of people will vote against her for the wrong reasons.”

In these days of being so repeatedly disappointed by political candidates, especially at the presidential level, it was refreshing to see that Rudy Giuliani is as appealing a candidate in person as on TV. I continue to believe that Rudy will be the Republican nominee and that he should be, as he gives the Party the best chance to win in an environment that is deservedly difficult for the GOP. As Republican voters cast ballots in primaries, I urge you to keep in mind who has the best chance of winning the general election. There will be very little satisfaction in voting for Mike Huckabee if it causes, for example, Mitt Romney or John McCain to get the nomination and then lose to a socialist named Clinton.

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And now a small challenge for the Giuliani campaign: At the event I attended, I happened to catch the mayor alone for a few seconds and gave him a document I’ve written about an important domestic policy issue. If someone from the campaign will contact me and tell me 1) what the subject of the document was, 2) if Rudy read it (he said he would), and 3) what his reaction to it was, I’ll send the campaign $1,000. The gauntlet has been thrown…