Rossputin.com: Rational Thinking About Our World

News sources are reporting this morning that former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has been killed, apparently shot during a larger attack just after a rally for Ms. Bhutto, now dead at the age of 54.

It appears there was a bomb which may have been used to force Bhutto to move, and then she was apparently shot multiple times. The initial reports also imply that the explosion may have been after the shooting, with the murderer blowing himself up.

There really are no "good guys" in Pakistani politics, just as it's difficult to find a good guy in any middle eastern country. However, Bhutto represented the country's best chance for something that looked like Democracy and an open mind toward western ideas (including being a role model for diminishing the subjugation of women in that part of the world.)

The primary suspects for this murder by pundits outside Pakistan will be supporters of the Taliban and Al Qaeda who, as Ambassador Marc Ginsberg said, recognized that Bhutto "constitutes the most important threat to extremism in the country. She's a democrat. She's western-oriented. She's an ally of the United States."

But within Pakistan, suspicion is focused on elements of the Musharraf government due to people knowing of a letter that Bhutto sent to Musharraf in which Bhutto said that people within his government want to kill her. It is more than possible that people whose political power or wealth is dependent on President Musharraf could have wanted her dead. Indeed, Stratfor believes that the "assassination could not have been possible without the jihadists being enabled by elements within the government" out of fear of Bhutto's party having a very strong showing in the upcoming elections on January 8th.

It's critical now, for the stability of the country, that Musharraf begin an investigation, preferably by as credible an independent investigative person or group which can be found or created in Pakistan. This investigation must not only find the organizers of the murder, but must try them publicly and then execute them...preferably also publicly...including (or especially) if those people work for the ISI or some other arm of the government's intelligence or security apparatus.

While Musharraf and his allies might be tempted to see Bhutto's death as good news, that would be a serious error on their part. Instead, they must take up her mantle and work publicly and aggressively to bring Bhutto's democratic ideals to fruition within the country. Anything else is a recipe for continuing dissent in the country, leaving the opening for Islamic extremists to increase their military and political power. It represents Edmund Burke's warning "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." While Musharraf is not easily placed in the category of "good men", he is the closest we have today.

In the meantime, it is likely that Bhutto supporters and maybe supporters of Nawaz Sharif, the other opposition leader and former Prime Minister will boycott the upcoming elections to cast further doubt on his legitimacy. Interestingly, although Bhutto's death is getting all the press, several people were killed at a pro-Sharif rally in Rawalpindi, the same town where Bhutto was killed just four hours later, apparently by supporters of Musharraf. Sharif was only about a mile away, on his way to the rally, so this could have been intended as an attempt to eliminate both of Musharraf's electoral competitors within 24 hours of each other. This event makes it appear that much more likely that Musharraf either had a hand in, or at least was powerless to prevent, these attacks.

This is leading to unrest in the streets of Pakistan, with pro-Democracy supporters verbally attacking Musharraf and leading the country toward further instability...leaving just the sort of chaotic situation in which extremism thrives. It would not be very surprising to see civilian protesters fighting government forces in the streets in coming days. It will be necessary for the US to force Musharraf to give up some or all power but it will also require a credible figure to assume that power, with the most credible such person now dead. As we see unrest (and hopefully not civil war), we must not forget that Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

Beyond the importance of this for Pakistan, it is critical for the US. Pakistan is possibly the most important country in our "War on Terror", not least because of its border with Afghanistan and it's wild-west-like frontier territories which are currently a safe haven for Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives and training camps. Musharraf has played patty-cake with those people for too long, in part because he did not feel politically strong enough to take them on. Thus, creating political unity (or some Pakistani version of it) which can give the government enough confidence to fight our mutual enemies is of utmost importance to the safety of Americans.

[Domestically speaking, this event can have some important effects on the upcoming primaries, with the candidates who argue that they have strong international and anti-terrorism credentials such as Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain, using this to attack opponents who have no substantial experience in these areas...such as Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee.]

Bhutto is dead, but her recent political legacy must live on. The security of Americans as well as the quality of life for all Pakistanis depends on it.