Rossputin.com: Rational Thinking About Our World

I found it fascinating to get these two articles within a short time of each other:

First, from Stratfor, an article called "The International Implications of a McCain Presidency", which says, in part:

While calling any election months ahead is hardly an exact science, at this point, it appears that McCain is the candidate to beat. This is not a Stratfor endorsement for McCain or a statement of opposition to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama (so please do not flood us with hate mail); this is an analysis of the proclivities of the U.S. electorate, the quirks of the U.S. electoral system and its impact abroad.

To be perfectly blunt, the Clinton and Obama campaigns both suffer from eminently exploitable flaws. Clinton, while by far the most intelligent candidate in the field, is not well-liked — even among the left. Obama, despite being the most inspirational candidate, sports the middle name “Hussein.” And the much-discussed Clinton-Obama (or Obama-Clinton, if you prefer) ticket simply would marry these problems.

But even if the Clinton and Obama campaigns were not facing such obstacles, McCain would still be the candidate to beat for one reason: The Democrats are locked into a Clinton-Obama death match for the loyalty of the left, while McCain — who has secured the political right — can begin courting the center and run for the presidency itself (rather than for the nomination).

And then this, a few days later, from Salena Zito of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

Obama is the odds-on betting favorite
Posted February 11, 2008 8 :19 PM

According to sports gambling and handicapping expert Steve Budin of Sportsinfo.com, Barack Obama has surpassed Hillary Clinton to become the odds-on betting favorite -- at 4-5 -- to win the presidential election. Sportsinfo.com is the world’s largest online sports pay-per-view analysis conglomerate.

Clinton is now listed at 3-2, along with GOP front-runner John McCain.

Mike Huckabee is listed at 25-1 in the race for the White House, followed by Ron Paul at 100-1. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has repeatedly said he has no plans to enter the race, is listed at 5-1.

Here is the current betting odds for each of the 2008 presidential candidates, according to Steve Budin of Sportsinfo.com:
Name Party Odds
Barack Obama D 4-5
Hillary Clinton D 3-2
John McCain R 3-2
Michael Bloomberg R 5-1
Mike Huckabee R 25-1
Ron Paul R 100-1

In other words, an analysis firm which is certainly no slouch (or group of slouches) has the opposite opinion from the general (or at least the betting) public on who is the favorite to win the race. It's interesting that the estimation of Hillary's chances have fallen so far; she was the betting favorite not so long ago.

The betting sites (not just the one quoted) clearly say that people think Barack Obama is our next president. On the other hand, they also once gave Ron Paul a nearly-10% chance and Mike Huckabee an over-20% chance...and the Patriots were 82% to win the Super Bowl.

I don't agree with Stratfor, even though I don't think betting sites are anything like flawless predictors (especially lately), but I find their prediction interesting, especially because it's so different from the current "common wisdom".

That said, things have changed with such rapidity in this election season that it would be just silly to give any particular outcome too low (or too high) a probability.