Rossputin.com Rational Thinking About Our World

Over at the Gang of Four blog, Gloria Neal asks why Hillary is still in the race. Here's my answer:

Gloria,

Let me take a stab at your question.

Hillary can’t close the deal because although Obama has been weakened lately, Hillary is still dogged by her perception as a congenital liar and because people are as tired of the Clintons as they are of the Bushes.

Obama can’t close the deal because Hillary really does have a strong case to make regarding electability.

Two other reasons: Hillary can’t close the deal because the Democratic Party is justifiably scared to death of an outcome that makes blacks feel like the black candidate had the nomination stolen from him, even if it was not only within the party’s rules but actually exactly what those rules were designed for if the people were about to nominate someone who wouldn’t win in November. Democrats believe, and I think they’re right, that Hillary getting the nomination means a decade of lessened black support for the party.

Obama can’t close the deal because he’s lost many of the most important Democrat states.

I don’t think you can say Obama is “getting the white vote”. He lost by 20 points or more among white voters in both Indiana and North Carolina…and by a similar amount in Pennsylvania.

I’m not looking to characterize that vote as racist or as not racist, any more than I’d try to characterize the over-90% support for Obama by blacks. It is what it is. But it explains a lot why superdelegates are not rushing to Obama even though Clinton can’t close the deal: they realize they have a true electability issue.

Obama has won states with large black populations and states which had caucuses rather than primaries. Many of these, especially the latter category, will go Republican in November regardless of which Democrat is nominated.

Hillary has won primaries, whose turnout (in comparison to a caucus) is far more likely to be like the general election, in Ohio, Florida (yes, Florida), Pennsylvania, California, New York, and New Jersey.

I agree with Hillary that she’s more electable…and I agree with the unspoken fear of Democratic superdelegates that they must nominate the less electable candidate, accepting a lower chance of winning in 2008 instead of lower black support for the party for the next decade.

So, to get back to answering your question: Hillary is still in the race because she rightly believes she’s more electable and because she knows that if Obama wins she’ll probably never have another chance whereas if she wins she gets her chance or if McCain wins she could try again in four years instead of eight. And don’t forget, she’s a Clinton, so her desire for power just for its own sake is stronger than you or I can probably imagine.